Assessing downtown recovery rates and determinants in North American cities after the COVID-19 pandemic

Covid-19 Pandemic and Downtown Recovery

When COVID-19 hit, cities around the globe faced unprecedented challenges. Some downtowns in North America bounced back quickly, while others struggled. This stark contrast got us curious. Why were some downtowns thriving while others were lagging behind? Our examination of the factors influencing downtown recovery rates provides some answers.

Research Objective

Our research aimed to study how downtowns in 66 of the largest cities in the U.S. and Canada were faring in 2023 compared to their pre-pandemic activity levels in 2019. We used data from mobile phones to track people’s movements and added census, economic, and other data to figure out what was helping or hindering these downtown areas. These include employment by industry, housing and socio-economic factors, commute variables, COVID-19 policies, crime rates, and weather conditions.

What makes our research stand out is the innovative use of Location-based Service Data extracted from mobile phones to measure and analyze downtown recovery at a granular level. This approach allows for a more detailed understanding of human mobility patterns and their correlation with urban recovery. The integration of such data with traditional economic indicators provides a comprehensive picture of the forces at play.

We also used a robust method to define downtown areas, employing the Hierarchical Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (HDBSCAN) algorithm. This ensures we have accurate and relevant geographic boundaries for our analysis.

Our analysis found notable disparities in downtown recovery rates, with an average recovery rate of around 76%. Only half of the cities have reached a recovery rate of 75% or higher, indicating many downtown areas in North America are still struggling to regain pre-pandemic foot traffic. Recovery rates vary widely, with St. Louis at 53% and Las Vegas exceeding pre-pandemic levels at 102%. Southern U.S. and medium-sized city downtowns experience the strongest recovery, while northern and larger city downtowns face more challenges in regaining visitors.

One of the standout findings was the role of the composition of the economy. Downtowns with a higher prevalence of sectors conducive to remote work, such as information technology, finance, and professional services, exhibited slower recovery rates. Conversely, areas dominated by industries that require physical presence—like retail, education, health care, and entertainment—showed greater resilience and faster recovery.

We also found that higher population density, crime rates, and education levels were associated with slower recovery. Harsh weather conditions and longer commute times further exacerbated the challenges. In contrast, lower-density, auto-oriented downtowns often surpassed pre-pandemic activity levels, highlighting the varied impacts of urban form and transportation infrastructure on recovery dynamics.

Conclusion and Future Directions

Our findings suggest that one-size-fits-all policies won’t work to revitalize downtowns. Each area needs a tailored approach that considers its unique economic and demographic profile. The insights from our research go beyond the immediate post-pandemic period and offer valuable lessons for making our cities more resilient to future shocks. As cities continue to adjust to the new normal, understanding these dynamics will be crucial for policymakers and urban planners. We need to think about flexible zoning laws, investing in public infrastructure, and supporting industries as they adapt to new ways of working.

Looking back on this journey, we see immense potential for further exploration. While our study focused on recovery rates, there are many unexplored themes, like the long-term sustainability of hybrid work models, the evolving nature of urban retail, and the social implications of these shifts.

In conclusion, the recovery of downtowns post-COVID-19 is a complex issue that requires a nuanced understanding and targeted action. By shedding light on the factors influencing recovery, we hope to contribute to creating more resilient and vibrant urban centers in the future.


Read the full article on Urban Studies OnlineFirst here.